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WrightWatch; the road to superstardom
Topic Started: Apr 8 2006, 11:46 AM (420 Views)
Post #1 Apr 8 2006, 11:46 AM	eye95
I have been predicting a breakout year for him, possibly resulting in superstardom. When will DHB add him to the banner? Anyway in 4 games (a small, but exciting, sample) he has amassed these stats: 8-for-16 makes his average .500. Two of his hits left the yard. He also has 2 walks for a .586 OBP. Add in his SLG (.875) and his OPS is 1.401!	Administrator Posts: 2,647 Group: Editor-in-Chief Member #1 Joined: December 11, 2005



Post #2 Apr 8 2006, 02:45 PM	Son N Law
Can you repeat that last bit in English for us Philistines in the back row? Not being a baseball fan myself, the only reason this stands out to me is because of Stephen Jay Gould's essay "Losing the Edge," from the collection The Flamingo's Smile, in which he explains (for non-baseball fans) the reasons for and the significance of the demise of the .400 average. I bet Gould would be rooting for Wright if he were still alive. (Although perhaps not; he was a lifelong Yankees fan).	Fool, apparently Posts: 804 Group: Members Member #4 Joined: December 12, 2005



Post #3 Apr 9 2006, 07:36 PM	eye95
8 for 16 means that he hit the ball and got to first safely 8 times and made 8 outs (16 at-bats or AB). He faced a pitcher three other times, walking twice, and hitting a fly ball deep enough to score a runner from third despite Wright being out (a sacrifice fly). That means he has an OBP (On Base Percentage) of .526 (10 hits and walks / 19 plate appearances. His slugging percentage (SLG) is .875 (14 total bases / 16 AB). Six of his 8 hits were singles (6 bases), and two were home runs (8 bases). OPS is simply OBP plus SLG. OPS is the most important offensive stat because (1) it is easy to calculate and (2) team OPS correlates highly with team runs scored and team run differential (runs scored - runs allowed) correlates highly with winning percentage. There are other stats that correlate more highly with team runs scored, called "runs created (RC)" and "win shares," but these stats are essentially conglomerates of OBP and SLG, but are more difficult to calculate. The ease of calculation of OPS make it far desirable to evaluate past performance and predict future performance. An OPS over .800 is good. Over .900 is outstanding. Over 1.000 is star status. Wright would be hard pressed to maintain 1.400 even for a month, but he has the potential for at least 1.000 this season and might even hit gasp 1.100! As for today, he went to the plate 4 times. Three counted as AB, in which he had one hit, a triple. Two players scored on that triple, giving him 2 runs batted in, 2 RBI. On his last plate appearance, he again hit a fly ball deep enough so that, despite Wright making an out, Carlos Beltran was able to score from 3rd base. This is a sacrifice fly and counts as a plate appearance in the calculation of OBP, but does not count as an at-bat in calculating average, 9-for-19, now, .473. His OBP is .478 (11/23) and his SLG is .895 (17/19), for an OPS of 1.373. David's last plate appearance today, was the last plate appearance of the game. The run that Beltran scored ended the game in the bottom of the ninth, breaking a 2-2 tie. That RBI was David's third of the day--all of the Mets' RBI today--and gives him a total of 9 on the season, setting the impossible pace of 292 for the season (100 is outstanding).	Administrator Posts: 2,647 Group: Editor-in-Chief Member #1 Joined: December 11, 2005



Post #4 Apr 11 2006, 10:31 PM	eye95
David had a bad day, today, going 1 for 4, with a double and an RBI. His average is now .435 (10/23). His OBP is .444 (12/27) and his SLG is .826 (19/23), for an OPS of 1.260. His 10 RBI in 7 games have trimmed his season pace from 292 to the more makeable ;) 231! Go D-Dubya!	Administrator Posts: 2,647 Group: Editor-in-Chief Member #1 Joined: December 11, 2005



Post #5 Apr 11 2006, 11:17 PM	Son N Law
You know, for some reason the whole home-run race never has interested me too much, but this is intriguing. Between you and Gould, I might just have to rethink this whole apathy toward baseball thing.	Fool, apparently Posts: 804 Group: Members Member #4 Joined: December 12, 2005



Post #6 Apr 12 2006, 07:19 AM	eye95
Get into Baseball just for the stats! No other major sport has the discrete individual competitions that lend themselves so well to counting, analysis, correlation, and prediction. And, with each team playing 162 games each year, the sample sizes are meaningful and the predictability works. Yet, each game is a small enough sample, so that anything can happen. Each plate appearance is an even smaller sample, with wilder results. Baseball is a statisticians dream.	Administrator Posts: 2,647 Group: Editor-in-Chief Member #1 Joined: December 11, 2005



Post #7 Apr 12 2006, 08:49 PM	eye95
No RBI for DW, today, going 2 for 4, with a double and a triple. His average is now .444 (12/27). His OBP is .452 (14/31) and his SLG is .888 (24/27), for an OPS of 1.340. Go D-Dubya!	Administrator Posts: 2,647 Group: Editor-in-Chief Member #1 Joined: December 11, 2005



Post #8 Apr 13 2006, 07:16 PM	eye95
DW's tear continues. He went 3 for 5 in today's 13-4 romp over the DC club, with a homerun (his third of the year) and 2 RBI. He crossed the plate twice himself. Let's look at his new stats: Average .469 (15/32), OBP .472 (17/36), .938 (30/32), OPS 1.410!!! 3 HR and 12 RBI in 8 games, puts him on pace for 61 jacks and an unreachable 243 ribbies. Go D-Dubya!	Administrator Posts: 2,647 Group: Editor-in-Chief Member #1 Joined: December 11, 2005



Post #9 Apr 15 2006, 08:06 AM	eye95
Well, it had to happen, folks. After all, David couldn't go through the whole season without a hitless day! Joe D's streak would pale by comparison to a 162 gamer. Anyway, he went 0 for 3 with his first K of the season. Without his offensive (a good thing in this context) support, the Mets eked out their 7th in a row and 8th of the young season. DW's bat seems to be a critical part of the offense. Well, here are the new numbers: Average .429 (15/35), OBP .436 (17/39), .857 (30/35), OPS 1.293!!! 3 HR and 12 RBI in 9 games, puts him on pace for 54 jacks and a still-impossible 216 ribbies. Go D-Dubya!	Administrator Posts: 2,647 Group: Editor-in-Chief Member #1 Joined: December 11, 2005



Post #10 Apr 15 2006, 10:03 PM	eye95
The Mets had a bad game, but DW started a new hitting streak with a good day that was not quite as spectacular as the standard he has been setting. It is a day, though, that most players would love to have every day. SuperDave went 1 for 3 (a single), with a sac fly and an RBI. The rest of the makeshift lineup produced spottily, scoring only one other run, also on a sac fly (Castro). With a 1-game hitting streak going ;) , Wright's new numbers are as follows: Average .429 (16/38), OBP .419 (18/43), .816 (31/38), OPS 1.235. 3 HR and 13 RBI in 10 games, puts him on pace for 49 jacks and a stratospheric 211 ribbies. Go D-Dubya!	Administrator Posts: 2,647 Group: Editor-in-Chief Member #1 Joined: December 11, 2005



Post #11 Apr 16 2006, 04:58 PM	eye95
In contributing to today's 9-3 drubbing of the Brewers, David didn't get any RBI, but it wasn't for lack of hitting with runners on base. He went 2 for 4 with a double and scored two runs. His new streak is two games long. David's bat is a major contributing factor to the Mets' not having lost a series this year. Here are the season's numbers: Average .429 (18/42), OBP .425 (20/47), .810 (34/42), OPS 1.235. 3 HR and 13 RBI in 11 games, puts him on pace for 44 jacks and an extraordinary 191 ribbies. Go D-Dubya!	Administrator Posts: 2,647 Group: Editor-in-Chief Member #1 Joined: December 11, 2005



Post #12 Apr 19 2006, 07:33 AM	eye95
David had bad back-to-back days, going 0 for 6 with a walk. With a weakened lineup right now, he needs to step up, but hasn't. Admittedly, it is tougher to get hits when two of the teams other big hitters are out of the lineup with injuries. Pitchers just aren't going to challenge you with good pitches if they can look down the lineup and see weakness. Here are the season's numbers: Average .375 (18/48), OBP .388 (21/54), .708 (34/48), OPS 1.096. 3 HR and 13 RBI in 13 games, puts him on pace for 37 jacks and 162 ribbies. Go D-Dubya!	Administrator Posts: 2,647 Group: Editor-in-Chief Member #1 Joined: December 11, 2005



Post #13 Apr 29 2006, 08:36 AM	eye95
While I was on hiatus (I had out-of-country houseguests), David had a mini-slump. He went for 6 days (April 17 - 22) without a multi-hit game. However, he is back on track, getting a multi-hit game every other day lately (2 HR last night!). His numbers dropped from unbelievable and unmaintainable to simply excellent and have started hovering. I think these are close to the numbers he will maintain all season. Here are those numbers: Average .329 (27/82), OBP .392 (38/97), .634 (52/82), OPS 1.026. 5 HR and 18 RBI in 22 games, puts him on pace for 38 jacks and 133 ribbies. Go D-Dubya!	Administrator Posts: 2,647 Group: Editor-in-Chief Member #1 Joined: December 11, 2005



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